Recently
glancing through technical reports and journals I have come across the ongoing
discussions regarding “Technology Forecasting”. I have felt fascinated towards
this subject.
Evolution
of any technology with time in history is not linear, but depends on some
mathematical formulations. An extrapolation of graphs on this subject brings
out exciting possibilities.
I feel
astonished considering the list of general items within my own lifespan which
are on the verge of becoming obsolete. The store room in house has got filled
up with electronic items like record player, bulky telephone sets, desk tops
etc. which have been retired prematurely by more refined and powerful new
generation appliances. The same can also be said about match box, telegram,
inland letters, table fan and radio. The speed at which a newly invented item
becomes obsolete is amazing.
Is there
any possibility regarding “The end” of this explosion? Unfortunately, there is.
Think of the time when science traversing its progress trajectory will reach a
stage, beyond which it will not be possible to imagine any further results by
humanity. If machines in their development process exceed the human intelligence
a bit, then from that stage onward they would be able to improve their own
versions to an extent that would be unseen and unheard by their creators. In
other words when machines thinking better than men could themselves develop new
improved machines, then men would not be required for this purpose. The
invention of such a “Super intelligent” machine will be the last invention in
the series to be undertaken by man. As an amateur artificial intelligence
professional, I believe that a machine with such extra-ordinary capacity may
come into existence by 2050.
How will be
our life post this event? Till now, such fears that “They” will enslave us or
destroy us seem remote. We can remain hopeful that ultimately “They” would get
bored of limitations of earth and then move on towards some other unknown
destination, so that we can embark on a new journey.
Very nice and forward looking article!
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